Mexican presidency race tightens slightly, Sheinbaum retains big lead

Exploring the Dynamics, Shifting Alliances, and Emerging Challenges as Mexico Heads Toward June 2024.

Claudia Sheinbaum during a news conference in Mexico City. Photographer: (Luis Antonio Rojas/Bloomberg)

Introduction

As the countdown to Mexico's presidential election on June 2, 2024, progresses, a recent opinion poll conducted by Parametria has unveiled intriguing developments in the political arena. While ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum continues to maintain a substantial lead, the contest has witnessed subtle shifts, with the main opposition forces adapting their strategies. In this comprehensive analysis, we explore the dynamics of the electoral landscape, dissect the implications of the latest poll results, and delve into the key players shaping Mexico's political future.

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Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and Claudia Sheinbaum wave during a ceremony to celebrate the first anniversary of their administration on July 1, 2019, in Mexico City. PEDRO MARTIN GONZALEZ CASTILLO (GETTY IMAGES)

Section I: Sheinbaum's Dominance and Slight Reduction in Lead

Claudia Sheinbaum, representing the leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), stands at the forefront with 52% support according to the October-November survey. Despite a marginal decrease from the previous month's 55%, her lead remains formidable. Analysts attribute this minor reduction to the aftermath of MORENA's primary process in September, during which Sheinbaum secured the nomination, experiencing a temporary boost in support.

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Claudia Sheinbaum, head of government of Mexico City, leaves office to compete for Morena's presidential candidacy just under a year before the 2024 elections. (Galo Cañas Rodríguez/Cuartoscuro)

Section II: Rival Alliances and Xochitl Galvez's Position

Subsection 2.1: The Right-Left Alliance

Xochitl Galvez, the candidate of a right-left alliance comprising three parties, trails behind with 25% support. This section explores the dynamics of this alliance, its strengths, and the challenges it faces in its quest to unseat the ruling MORENA party.

Subsection 2.2: Galvez's Evolution

A businesswoman-turned-politician, Xochitl Galvez has undergone a notable evolution in her political career. We examine her journey, the strategies she employs, and the factors that could influence her trajectory as the election approaches.